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Moral Values |
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Has the "Moral Values" myth finally been put to rest? 2/7/05While I was pretty sure that I heard Dick Morris clarifying the issue within days of the election, the "moral values" myth has nonetheless become yet another great example of how once accepted, it's pretty darned tough to debunk conventional wisdom. With several "definitive" pieces now having been written, such as the New Yorker article by Louis Menand (Dec 06, 2004), one would think we could get past this. But alas...we cannot. Just as I'd heard Dick Morris say on TV, it doesn't take a rocket scientist or a statistician to quickly see just how far in front of the cart the news media horses ran. As you can see for yourself at http://www.exit-poll.net/, question [E] on the exit poll questionnaire asked (the emphasis is theirs): Which ONE issue mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (Check only one) 1 Taxes 2 Education 3 Iraq 4 Terrorism 5 Economy/Jobs 6 Moral Values 7 Health care This is how the answers fell (according to what I think I heard Dick Morris say, and as reported by Menand): 1 Taxes 5% 2 Education 4% 3 Iraq 15% 4 Terrorism 19% 5 Economy/Jobs 20% 6 Moral Values 22% 7 Health care 8%
Now, do you remember in high school how the pot-smoking hippies (no judgment implied - just an observation) would win homecoming king or queen because the popular candidates would split the "mainstream" vote, leaving the united "free love" crowd to garner the most votes? Well the same principal applies here. In the minds of voters, was Iraq separate from terrorism? How about Economy/Jobs and Taxes? Let's face it, if you aggregate these selections and "unsplit" the vote, it looks like this: Iraq/Terrorism got 34% of the vote as the ONE issue that mattered most Economy/Jobs/Taxes got 25% Moral Values got 22% Healthcare got 8% Education got 5%
That's the basic argument. Still not convinced? I'll refer you back to the "definitive" article referenced above, which contains a myriad of other analysis, polls, and data that sure appears to me to be "PROOF" that moral values were not the deciding factor of this election, and probably were of less importance than in 2000. |
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