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Katrina Heuristics |
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Heuristics cost lives during Katrina – Politics Offensive 9-8-2005As I still digest the terrible devastation and watch events on the Gulf coast unfold, I find myself probably as disoriented, biased and emotionally wrapped up an observer as most – drawn to the reality but unable to see a more direct way to help than financial. In my ongoing observation of human tendencies, however, and hardwired obstacles to solid reasoning that can catch any of us who is unaware, there are two early thoughts I wanted to offer. The first came only yesterday (September 8th), as I watched Mississippi residents interviewed about why they didn’t leave. I fully understand the reasons why many of the poor stayed, and have struggled to understand how a rich nation like ours cannot have better executed plans to evacuate those who simply couldn’t afford to evacuate – often having no transportation. But several interviews painted yet another example of a dangerous human tendency that can grab us all, and of which awareness truly can help. It is our tendency to draw conclusions from anecdotes or small sample sizes, as did those many folks who assumed that because the high water mark from the “great” hurricane Camille didn’t submerge their homes, no hurricane would. Please understand that I’m guilty of this myself, in many situations, and that my comments are not critical, accusatory, or trite. As a pilot, I can tell you that the aviation community pays special attention to avoiding the potential consequences of premature conclusions from relatively few examples. We’ve seen people who routinely fly too close to convective weather (thunderstorms), or even brag about it, only to wind up hitting the ground vertically after the wings are removed from the airplane in the bat of mother nature’s eye. But it is simply so seductive to draw conclusions from a few previous experiences. You may get away with it 2, 10, or even 27 times – only to learn that the 28th is the fatal trial. If you had a one in 28 chance of dying from grocery shopping, you wouldn’t like those odds! But somehow we can accept these very poor odds in situations like these, because of this human desire to learn and draw conclusions. Psychologists call our mental, problem-solving strategies “heuristics,” and it seems clear that our tendency to prematurely draw conclusions, based on too little data, is something we need to consciously guard against – just as we teach our children. The second observation relates to premature conclusions as well, but in a different sort of way. It is a bit negative in nature, and for that I apologize. There are so many countless acts of selfless human compassion that I’m deeply moved and touched on a daily basis. But the politicization of this event is rapidly becoming something I’m finding deeply distasteful, if not down right disturbing and repulsive. Truly it is possible that “heads need to roll”. But in particular the politicians in Congress ought to be embarrassed by the comments being made from the floor of our sacred institutions, and being floated in the media at such a troubled time. I truly don’t think I’ve seen such transparent, self-affirming, politically motivated, ridiculous accusations of blame directed toward other individuals, at least not many times before (Sen. Hillary Rodham yesterday was a good example). Yes, some criticisms have merit. Yes, we are all aching with sympathy and compassion and disturbed by the failures. But for the very lawmakers who haven’t themselves been accountable for proposed solutions or taken actions that would have prevented this (despite the fact that we "knew"), and in fact in most cases voted for essentially every appointment and step that led the bureaucracy to exactly where it is today (such as putting FEMA under Homeland Security), to be pointing fingers is simply playing dirty pool. At this point to say that any individual or political party should bear more than a tiny sliver of the massive amount of blame to go around, is oversimplified drivel. Government is legalistic by nature. Government does NOT act fast. That isn’t an excuse. It is a fact! It needs to change if we are to be anywhere near as ready as we thought we were for natural disasters or terrorist attacks, but it is the reality. So what I’m suggesting is consistent with an ongoing mantra of mine. Very often, issues are more complex than we understand. I believe it is clear that the systems broke down in preparation and response to Katrina. Extensive study will happen, and needs to happen. This clearly must be fixed. Bureaucracy must be reduced. At the same time, the communications and events as they unfolded are a complex web of communications, state government, relief organizations, military and federal agencies, media, victims, and hundreds of other various factors. To draw immediate conclusions – “we knew this would happen but (insert George Bush, Bill Clinton, or whatever name you wish) did nothing”- is in fact an overly simplistic solution to a complex and sad tragedy of equally predictable government inefficiency and ineffectiveness. If you are compelled to begin the assessment of breakdowns in this event, I urge you to keep an eye on www.factcheck.org. Their first article was posted on September 2nd, and I’m confident they will be a great resource for truth on this event in the coming months, as they are on so many issues of a political nature. |
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