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Hockey Stick |
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Global warming debate heats up over 'Hockey Stick' 2/21/05A great example of science being influenced by emotion is taking shape right before our eyes. The last report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change included the now-famous "hockey stick" graph, showing flat temperatures over the last 1,000 years, followed by a dramatic upswing since 1900. An example of the IPCC's original chart is here. Along comes Stephen McIntyre, a retired Canadian who is gaining international audiences with scientists by articulating why the widely cited visual indicator of man's influence on global temperature - may be misleading and based upon bad science. (A "corrected" chart is in this .pdf from HIS web site) His assertions are being published in a major science journal, and made the cover of the Wall Street Journal on Valentine's Day, 2005. It should be noted that in our suggested reading guide is a book by Bjorn Lomborg. In fairness, Lomborg made a pretty good case against the chart's veracity in his book: Lomborg, Bjorn. The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1998 (revised 2001). Now, McIntyre is into such detailed "proof", that it is 17 levels over my head! (Which doesn't mean anything, other than it's tough for me to understand math at that level - or just about any level:-). The chart's primary creator, Michael Mann, is fighting back hard. Bottom line? The Wall Street Journal cover story of February 14, 2005, sure makes it sound like Mann is defending his ego, withholding data from the science community, and perhaps is not emotionally open to challenges (that's what I think I heard in the article). To that end, the title of the document on his web site is, "Dummies guide to the latest 'Hockey Stick' controversy" - which certainly doesn't sound like an emotion-less refutation of a legitimate scientific criticism. Once again, I must ask. What emotions and politics are behind this international urination-match over global warming, and HOW ON EARTH ARE REAL PEOPLE LIKE YOU AND ME SUPPOSED TO FIND THE TRUTH??? I don't know who is right, but I can tell you that it's getting interesting. Especially as the IPCC begins to write it's next major report, and we've already had an American scientist quit because he says the IPCC was politicizing issues of science and asking him to bias his statements. Hmmmmmm. Just follow the links to their sites and decide for yourself! Let me just say this. I believe there IS global warming. Beyond that, however, most of my reading leads to utter confusion over the degree of causation related to CO2 and other man-influenced variables. And when anything gets debated internationally, especially as it relates to governing HUGE pieces of other nations' economies (via energy), I find it hard to believe that the politics of economics can do anything but become a HUGE force. Once again, we have to trust science - and minimize the politicization thereof. |
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